Global oil supply depends on a handful of narrow waterways. Disruption at any chokepoint can spike prices worldwide.
Houthi attacks continue. Combined Hormuz+Houthi effectively blocks Persian Gulf → Suez route entirely.
| Year | Flow (M bpd) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5 | Houthi attacks continue. Combined Hormuz+Houthi effectively blocks Persian Gulf → Suez route entirely. |
| 2024 | 3.2 | Massively disrupted by Houthi attacks. Rerouting via Cape. |
| 2023 | 6.2 | Choke before Suez. Houthi threat zone. |
Peak rerouting. ALL Gulf crude to Europe/Americas goes via Cape. Massive tanker demand surge.
| Year | Flow (M bpd) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.0 | Peak rerouting. ALL Gulf crude to Europe/Americas goes via Cape. Massive tanker demand surge. |
| 2025 | 6.5 | Major rerouting from Suez+Hormuz. Additional 10-15 days per voyage. Insurance costs 3-5x normal. |
| 2024 | 5.5 | Suez/Bab el-Mandeb rerouting. +10 days per voyage. Higher insurance. |
Russian crude exports. Shadow fleet transit.
| Year | Flow (M bpd) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3.2 | Russian crude exports. Shadow fleet transit. |
| 2022 | 3.4 | Pre-price-cap. Russian surge to frontload exports. |
Saudi Aramco East-West pipeline at max capacity. Only Saudi export route bypassing Hormuz. 5M bpd capacity = half Saudi production.
| Year | Flow (M bpd) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.0 | Saudi Aramco East-West pipeline at max capacity. Only Saudi export route bypassing Hormuz. 5M bpd capacity = half Saudi production. |
Severe drought. Transit slots auctioned at M+.
| Year | Flow (M bpd) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.6 | Severe drought. Transit slots auctioned at M+. |
| 2023 | 0.9 | Drought restricted transits 2023. Not a major oil route. |
Loadings avg 3.8M bpd vs 20M+ pre-crisis. IRGC attacks on transiting vessels.
| Year | Flow (M bpd) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3.8 | Loadings avg 3.8M bpd vs 20M+ pre-crisis. IRGC attacks on transiting vessels. |
| 2026-03 | 3.8 | Iran declares Strait closed March 4. Largest supply disruption in oil market history. -81% from baseline. |
| 2026-02 | 20.1 | Pre-crisis baseline. Feb 28: US-Israel air war on Iran begins. Hormuz traffic normal through Feb 27. |
| 2023 | 20.3 | Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Qatar. ~21% of global petroleum liquids. |
| 2022 | 20.6 | Record flows. Key route for LNG also (~25% global). |
| 2021 | 18.1 | COVID recovery year. |
| 2020 | 17.4 | COVID demand collapse. |
| 2019 | 20.5 | Pre-COVID baseline. US-Iran tensions. |
| 2018 | 20.7 | Peak flows before sanctions reimposed. |
Key route China/Japan/Korea crude imports.
| Year | Flow (M bpd) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16.4 | Key route China/Japan/Korea crude imports. |
| 2022 | 15.9 | Rising China demand. |
| 2021 | 14.5 | COVID recovery. |
| 2020 | 14.2 | COVID impact. |
Suez traffic further reduced — no Gulf crude transiting. Only non-Gulf cargoes. Houthi risk persists.
| Year | Flow (M bpd) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.8 | Suez traffic further reduced — no Gulf crude transiting. Only non-Gulf cargoes. Houthi risk persists. |
| 2025 | 3.5 | Continued Houthi disruption. Most tankers rerouting via Cape. |
| 2024 | 4.8 | Houthi attacks forced rerouting. -48% from 2023. Cape of Good Hope diversions. |
| 2023 | 9.2 | Combined canal transit + pipeline. Houthi attacks began late 2023. |
| 2022 | 8.8 | Normal operations. |
| 2021 | 7.5 | Ever Given blockage March 2021 (6 days). |
| 2020 | 7.7 | COVID reduced demand. |
CPC Blend, Azeri Light, Russian Urals. Erdogan insurance letter delays 2022-23.
| Year | Flow (M bpd) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2.9 | CPC Blend, Azeri Light, Russian Urals. Erdogan insurance letter delays 2022-23. |
| 2022 | 3.1 | Erdogan blocked tankers without P&I insurance letters. |
Data sources: U.S. Treasury (OFAC SDN), U.S. Energy Information Administration, European Maritime Safety Agency (EU MRV), U.S. Coast Guard (PSIX), Global Fishing Watch (GFW satellite AIS), AISStream.io. All data cryptographically attested on Polygon blockchain.
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